By Professor Toto — TOTO FREE PRESS Tomorrow’s News Today Legal Analysis for People Who Actually Want to Understand What’s Happening
Since last night, my inbox has looked like a five-alarm fire. Panicked texts. Furious emails.
“Toto — they STOLE it! They voted themselves a gerrymander! The Commonwealth is LOST!”
I hear you. Last night felt like a gut punch. And if you don’t understand how courts work, I understand why you’re scared.
Take a deep breath.
Have NO FEAR.
The courts in Virginia are very likely to OVERTURN this UNCONSTITUTIONAL POWER GRAB — and before you write that off as wishful thinking, let your old professor walk you through exactly why.
By the end of this piece, you’ll understand more about American redistricting law than 95% of the talking heads on cable news. And you’ll understand something else too:
Why TEXAS will stand while VIRGINIA falls.
Let’s go.
🏛️ FIRST — THE 3 LEVELS OF COURT
Before we dive in, you need to remember what I’ve taught you a hundred times:
DISTRICT → CIRCUIT → SUPREME
Conservatives rarely win in the lower courts. And here’s the reason:
Those lower courts — District and Circuit — do not MAKE constitutional law. They APPLY it.
They look at what the Supreme Court has ALREADY said, apply it to the facts in front of them, and rule accordingly. Original constitutional review — the power to say “this law violates the Constitution” for the FIRST TIME — belongs to the Supreme Court alone.
If every district and circuit judge stopped to relitigate constitutionality in every single case, the system would grind to a halt. So they don’t. They READ STATUTES. They READ PRECEDENT. They rule accordingly.
⚖️ Only at the SUPREME COURT — either of THE STATE or THE UNITED STATES — do you get original constitutional review.
Tuck that away. You’re going to need it in about three minutes.
📍 WHAT HAPPENED IN VIRGINIA
Back in 2020, the people of Virginia — 65.69% of them, 2,770,704 voters — passed a constitutional amendment that STRIPPED the legislature of the power to draw congressional districts by itself. It passed in EVERY county and city in the Commonwealth except Arlington.
That’s not a partisan result. That is a landslide of the Virginia people.
The amendment handed redistricting power to a bipartisan REDISTRICTING COMMISSION: 16 members — 8 legislators (evenly split between Republicans and Democrats) and 8 citizens selected by retired judges. To approve any map, 12 of the 16 must agree — including at least 6 legislators and 6 citizens.
That means NEITHER PARTY can draw a map unilaterally. That’s not a loophole. That’s by DESIGN.
Stop. Read that again.
The people of Virginia — by CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT — took the gerrymandering crayons away from politicians and gave them to a commission with baked-in minority rights.
Fast-forward to November 2025. Democrats sweep the state — Abigail Spanberger wins the governorship with 57.4%, Jay Jones wins AG with 52%, and the House of Delegates flips hard with Democrats gaining 13 seats — their largest majority since 1987 (64-36).
They watch Texas redraw its map. They watch California pass Prop 50. They get JEALOUS.
They want to gerrymander TOO.
But they CAN’T. The people already locked that power away in the state constitution.
So what do they do?
They try to AMEND THE CONSTITUTION to GIVE THE POWER BACK TO THEMSELVES — temporarily — just long enough to redraw the 2026 map into a 10-1 Democrat gerrymander before handing the power back to the commission after 2030.
Folks… you cannot make this stuff up.
And HERE is where they blew it. The process they used to push through this amendment was, on its face, unlawful under Virginia’s OWN constitution and legislative rules.
📜 THE PROCEDURAL AVALANCHE — FOUR INDEPENDENT KILL SHOTS
This is not a close case. A Tazewell County Circuit Judge — Jack Hurley Jr. — has ALREADY RULED that the entire resolution is “void ab initio” — legally null FROM THE BEGINNING.
In his 22-page order issued January 27, 2026, Judge Hurley laid out the damage. Four independent grounds. Any ONE of which is fatal.
1. The Two-Session Requirement Was Never Satisfied
Virginia’s constitution requires that a proposed amendment pass TWO CONSECUTIVE GENERAL ASSEMBLY sessions with an intervening House of Delegates election between them.
Democrats passed HJR 6007 on October 31, 2025 (51-42 in the House, 21-16 in the Senate — straight party-line). Then they passed it AGAIN on January 16, 2026 (62-33 House, 21-18 Senate — again, party-line).
But here’s the problem: the House of Delegates election was November 4, 2025 — just four days after the October 31 vote. And early voting had already begun on September 19, 2025 — a month BEFORE HJR 6007 was passed.
Judge Hurley ruled — in writing — that no valid “ensuing general election” occurred between the two passages. His exact words:
“There is no rational conclusion except that the ELECTION began on the first day of voting (September 19, 2025) and ended on November 4, 2025. Therefore, the Court FINDS that following the October 31, 2025 vote and passage of House Joint Resolution 6007 there HAS NOT BEEN an ensuing general election of the House of Delegates, and such ensuing general election CANNOT occur until 2027.”
Translation: The amendment failed the two-session requirement before it ever reached a ballot. Dead on arrival.
2. Special-Session Abuse — And Here’s The Dirty Little Secret
Now pay attention to this one — because this is the political theft hiding in plain sight:
The 2024 Special Session was called by REPUBLICAN Governor Glenn Youngkin in May 2024 — for a BUDGET DISPUTE. Only a budget dispute. That was the entire scope.
But the session was never formally adjourned. It just… sat there. Technically still open.
So in October 2025 — SEVENTEEN MONTHS LATER — Democrats went back, dusted off that RESIDUAL REPUBLICAN-CALLED SESSION, and used it to ram through a constitutional amendment that had NOTHING to do with the original purpose.
HJR 6001 — the resolution governing that session — did NOT authorize consideration of a constitutional amendment. To expand the scope, Democrats needed a TWO-THIRDS VOTE. They never got it. They just bulldozed it through on a PARTY-LINE vote via HJR 6006, then passed HJR 6007 on the same day.
Judge Hurley’s ruling:
“This blatant abuse of power by a majority ignores their own rules and resolutions thereby trampling any and all procedural rights of the minority.”
That is judicial language. In a written ruling. And the practical meaning is simple: Democrats hijacked a Republican governor’s budget session to pass a partisan gerrymander.
3. Defective Public-Notice / 90-Day Posting Requirement
Virginia Code §30-13 requires circuit court clerks to post proposed amendments at courthouse doors at least three months before the next House of Delegates election.
The amendment was passed October 31, 2025. The House of Delegates election was November 4, 2025. That’s FOUR DAYS, not ninety.
It’s not that they missed the deadline. It was PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE to comply.
And Democrats have even admitted this by trying to pass NEW LEGISLATION (SB769) to retroactively REPEAL the 90-day requirement. That’s not a legal defense. That’s a CONFESSION.
4. Misleading Ballot Language
The ballot told voters the amendment would “restore fairness” — when what it actually does is DESTROY the bipartisan process that 65.69% of Virginians voted FOR in 2020.
Judge Hurley’s February 19, 2026 ruling:
“The ballot language as set by HB 1384 violates the submission clause of Article XII, Section 1 of Virginia’s Constitution because it is misleading, in particular the ‘restore fairness’ language because it would lead a voter to believe he or she were doing something unfair by voting against the proposed amendment.”
Hurley also found the plaintiffs had an “extraordinarily high likelihood of success on the merits.”
That’s not my language. That’s a JUDGE’S language. In a SECOND written ruling.
Four independent kill shots. Any ONE of them voids the amendment.
This isn’t a close case. It’s an avalanche.
🗳️ “BUT TOTO — THE PEOPLE VOTED!”
Oh, I can already hear the weeping and gnashing of teeth. “How can a COURT overturn the PEOPLE’S VOTE?!”
And let’s be honest — the vote was CLOSE. 51.5% YES to 48.6% NO. A margin of less than three points. Much closer than Democrats expected. When you have to spend $89 million in combined campaign money and still barely crack 51%, you don’t have a mandate. You have a squeaker.
But let’s set that aside. Let’s grant Democrats their 51.5%.
Even a full majority cannot ratify an illegal act.
If the VOTE is used to ratify an ILLEGAL ACT — the VOTE BECOMES MOOT.
You cannot VOTE to violate the Constitution.
You cannot VOTE to strip a process 65.69% of your fellow citizens already enshrined.
You cannot VOTE yourself a mid-decade gerrymander just because California did it first.
Now — this is not a novel idea invented by conservatives to steal elections. It is as old as the Republic itself.
James Madison — the Father of the Constitution — warned in Federalist No. 51 that the majority faction is the greatest threat to individual liberty in a republic. The entire architecture of the American system — separated powers, bicameralism, judicial review — was built for ONE PURPOSE: to ensure that 51% CANNOT strip the other 49% of their constitutional rights.
The Virginia voters who passed the 2020 redistricting amendment did not merely cast a preference. They ENSHRINED A RIGHT — the right of Virginia citizens to have their maps drawn by a process insulated from partisan manipulation.
The Virginia Supreme Court is not overturning the will of the people.
It is enforcing the will of the 65.69% — against the procedural sleight-of-hand of the 51.5%.
And let me say that one more time, because it’s the line the Left will never acknowledge:
65.69% ENSHRINED the commission. 51.5% voted to BREAK the process.
That isn’t how THE REPUBLIC WORKS. This is how a democracy works: MOB RULE.
And the Founders built the courts — specifically — to stop it.
🌴 WHY VIRGINIA PANICKED — THE CALIFORNIA DOMINO
To understand why Virginia Democrats took such a reckless legal gamble, you have to understand what happened in California.
California, like Virginia, had stripped its legislature of redistricting power — handing it to an independent citizens’ commission after a 2008 ballot initiative. For over a decade, that commission drew the maps.
Then on November 4, 2025 — the same day Virginia held its state elections — California voters passed Proposition 50 — handing the power back to the Democratic supermajority legislature. The result? A congressional map engineered to add three to four additional Democratic seats heading into 2026.
Virginia Democrats watched California do it that very same night and thought: “We want that.”
But here’s the critical difference California’s success concealed:
California’s Prop 50 was a CITIZEN-INITIATED BALLOT MEASURE — placed on the ballot through the proper initiative process, following all constitutional requirements.
Virginia’s amendment was a LEGISLATIVE MANEUVER — rushed through an improperly expanded REPUBLICAN-CALLED special session, in violation of posting requirements, with misleading ballot language, and arguably never completing the two-session requirement.
California followed the rules to change the rules. Virginia BROKE the rules to change the rules.
Same destination. Completely different roads.
And in constitutional law — the road is everything.
🏛️ WILL VIRGINIA BE OVERTURNED?
Very likely. Here’s why:
The Virginia Supreme Court has ALREADY SCHEDULED its review. Initial briefs were due March 23. Reply briefs are due April 23 — 48 hours from now. Oral arguments will follow. A ruling is expected after the April 21 election.
And here’s the most important detail — the Virginia Supreme Court, when it allowed the referendum to proceed, expressly stated it had “grave concerns” about the amendment and that its decision to let the vote proceed did NOT resolve the underlying legal claims.
Grave concerns. From the state’s highest court. That’s not cover for the Democrats — that’s a WARNING SHOT.
Remember what I told you at the top?
Only the Supreme Court does original constitutional review.
The lower Virginia courts have been bouncing this back and forth — blocking, unblocking, tweaking schedules, revisiting injunctions. That’s not final constitutional law. That’s STATUTORY PING-PONG.
But the Virginia Supreme Court will look at the amendment itself and ask the real question:
“Was this amendment advanced in accordance with the Virginia Constitution?”
And based on what the lower court has already found — void ab initio, blatant abuse of power, failure of the two-session requirement, inadequate notice, and misleading ballot language — the challengers have a very strong case that the answer is NO, and the amendment cannot stand.
🤔 “BUT TOTO… WHAT ABOUT TEXAS?”
Now here’s where the questions start coming in hot.
“Toto — if you’re saying Virginia’s redistricting will get overturned… what about TEXAS? Isn’t it the SAME thing? Republicans drew a map. Democrats sued. A lower court blocked it. Sounds identical!”
Short answer: NO. It’s not the same at all.
Long answer: Texas and Virginia look similar from 30,000 feet — both are mid-decade congressional map fights, both are drenched in partisan warfare, both have generated lawsuits faster than a West Texas thunderstorm.
But the LEGAL FOUNDATIONS underneath them couldn’t be more different. So let’s walk through it — and I’ll give you the VERIFIED facts, not the cable-news summary.
📍 WHAT HAPPENED IN TEXAS — THE REAL STORY
August 23, 2025 — at 12:40 in the morning, the Texas Senate passed House Bill 4 on an 18-8 vote.
August 29, 2025 — Governor Greg Abbott signed it into law.
The new map took Texas from 25 Republican seats to potentially 30 — a gain of FIVE seats. President Trump had personally called Abbott to pressure him into the redraw. Abbott initially RESISTED, along with most of the Texas GOP congressional delegation. But then Trump’s DOJ — led by Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon — sent a letter identifying four Democratic districts as unconstitutional “coalition districts,” giving Abbott legal cover for the special session.
The Left EXPLODED. LULAC, the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights, the Texas NAACP, the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, Voto Latino — all of them consolidated into one massive lawsuit under the 14th and 15th Amendments and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
Their core legal theory: Texas used race as the predominant means to achieve partisan ends. Not just partisan gerrymandering — which is legal — but RACIAL gerrymandering, which is NOT.
The Lower Court Ruling
November 18, 2025 — a three-judge federal panel ruled 2-1 AGAINST Texas. A 160-page opinion. The author? Judge Jeffrey Brown — a TRUMP APPOINTEE. Joined by Obama appointee Judge David Guaderrama. Only Reagan appointee Judge Jerry Smith dissented.
The panel’s findings were brutal:
“Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map.”
“The bill’s main proponents purposefully manipulated the districts’ racial numbers to make the map more palatable. That’s racial gerrymandering.”
Based on a 9-day hearing, 23 witnesses, thousands of exhibits, and a 3,000-page record. The panel ordered Texas to use the 2021 map for 2026.
A crushing ruling. Game over… right?
WRONG. Texas appealed to the BIG BOYS.
The Supreme Court Stay
December 4, 2025 — in Abbott v. LULAC (No. 25A608), the U.S. Supreme Court granted Texas’s emergency stay 6-3. Unsigned per curiam opinion. Justice Alito — joined by Thomas and Gorsuch — wrote a concurring opinion that lit the match.
Alito’s words: it was “indisputable” that Texas’s motivation was “pure and simple partisan advantage.”
And partisan gerrymandering is LEGAL. Which brings us to the case that decided it all…
⚖️ RUCHO v. COMMON CAUSE — THE CASE THAT DECIDED THE WAR
In 2019, the United States Supreme Court issued one of the most consequential redistricting rulings in American history — Rucho v. Common Cause. Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for a 5-4 majority, held that partisan gerrymandering claims present political questions beyond the reach of federal courts.
Read that slowly.
The Supreme Court said: “We are not in the business of policing how much partisan advantage a legislature can extract from a map.”
Why? Because the Constitution assigns the power to draw congressional districts to STATE LEGISLATURES. Nowhere does it say the legislature must draw a “fair” map. It says the legislature draws the map. Full stop.
Roberts even called extreme partisan gerrymandering “unjust” and “incompatible with democratic principles.” He just said it is NOT the federal judiciary’s job to fix it.
Texas read Rucho. Texas followed Rucho. Texas WON.
Virginia never had a Rucho to hide behind — because Virginia’s problem was never partisan gerrymandering.
Virginia’s problem was an UNCONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS.
And there is no Supreme Court precedent that protects unconstitutional processes.
One Note Of Intellectual Honesty On Texas
Let’s be clear about what the Supreme Court did NOT do:
-
The Court did NOT rule on the merits. It only granted a stay.
-
The case is STILL PENDING. A full trial on the merits has not occurred.
-
The lower court ruling was a preliminary injunction — not a final judgment.
But when the U.S. Supreme Court stays a lower court ruling 6-3, and three justices in concurrence already tell you the plaintiffs’ racial theory is wrong, the writing is on the wall. Texas is going to win this thing outright when the merits come up.
📋 THE TOTO SCORECARD: VIRGINIA vs. TEXAS
VIRGINIATEXASAuthority usedSTOLEN — people stripped it in 2020EXISTING — legislature always had itProcess followedViolated state constitution (4 ways)Followed standard legislative processLegal basisUnconstitutional amendmentRucho v. Common Cause (2019)Lower courtRuled “void ab initio” — TWICEBlocked → STAYED by SCOTUSState/Federal Supreme CourtVA SC: “grave concerns” — arguments pendingSCOTUS already ruled: USE THE MAPProcedural violations4 independent groundsZeroVote margin51.5% — a squeakerLegislative vote — legal either wayLikely outcomeFALLS ❌STANDS ✅The lessonBreak the rules, loseFollow the rules, win
⚖️ THE KEY DIFFERENCE — SAY IT WITH ME
Here’s the distinction between Virginia and Texas. Burn this into your brain:
👉 TEXAS used EXISTING CONSTITUTIONAL POWER for partisan ends. → The Texas Legislature ALREADY HAD the authority to redistrict. Partisan gerrymandering is LEGAL per Rucho. ✅
👉 VIRGINIA used an UNCONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS to CREATE NEW POWER that the PEOPLE HAD ALREADY STRIPPED from them. → Procedural violation of the Virginia Constitution on FOUR independent grounds. ❌
Texas followed the rules. Virginia BROKE the rules to GET to the rules.
One is a legislature doing what a legislature is legally allowed to do.
The other is a legislature trying to UNDO a constitutional amendment — in violation of the very constitution they swore an oath to uphold — so they can do something they’re NOT allowed to do.
Texas = USING power they LEGALLY HAVE. Virginia = STEALING power the people TOOK AWAY.
Not the same thing. Not even close.
📋 THE BOTTOM LINE
-
TEXAS will STAND. The U.S. Supreme Court has spoken 6-3. Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch have already telegraphed their view of the merits. The map is legal. Republicans get their 5 seats. End of story.
-
VIRGINIA will likely FALL. A trial judge has already voided the resolution — TWICE. Called it “void ab initio.” Called it a “blatant abuse of power.” Said the plaintiffs have an “extraordinarily high likelihood of success on the merits.” The Virginia Supreme Court has expressed “grave concerns.” Four independent kill shots. Any one of which ends the amendment.
The Left wanted a MIRROR of Texas.
What they BUILT was a HOUSE OF CARDS on an UNCONSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION.
And as your old professor has told you a thousand times…
“You cannot STEAL your way to JUSTICE. You cannot BREAK the Constitution in order to SAVE it.”
You cannot CHEAT your way to FAIRNESS.
The Left thinks the Constitution is a WEAPON to be wielded when convenient and IGNORED when inconvenient. But the Constitution — both federal and state — is the ONE THING standing between a free people and a 51% mob.
Texas understood that. Texas won.
Virginia forgot that. Virginia is about to learn.
🎯 AND WHAT HAPPENS IF THE VIRGINIA COURT DOES ITS JOB?
My readers will immediately ask: “OK, but what happens if the Virginia Supreme Court DOES overturn it?”
Here’s your answer:
The bipartisan commission draws the map. The one 65.69% voted for in 2020 — in every single county except Arlington. The one that was working fine until Virginia Democrats decided they wanted California’s gerrymander without California’s homework.
Virginia goes back to the process THE PEOPLE CHOSE. The process THE CONSTITUTION PROTECTS. The process that was never supposed to be touched.
The Democrats don’t lose a gerrymander. They lose a power grab they were never entitled to make.
And that, folks, is not a tragedy. That is the Constitution doing exactly what it was designed to do.
🎬 FINAL THOUGHT
The ballots don’t fix the foundation. The vote doesn’t cure the violation.
The Virginia Supreme Court is about to remind the legislature of something the 65.69% already knew in 2020: you cannot overwrite a constitutional amendment with an unconstitutional one.
Texas read the Constitution, respected the Constitution, and won.
Virginia tried to REWRITE the Constitution in violation of the Constitution — and is about to lose.
Don’t panic. Don’t wring your hands. The system is working.
And Now You Know… THE BEST of the Story.
— Professor Toto TOTO FREE PRESS — Tomorrow’s News Today
